Kona Is Finally Cooling Off

Aloha friends. Can you feel it?

After one of the hottest, stickiest summers I can remember, the mornings up mauka finally have that crisp edge again. The fans are getting a break, the sheets feel cool at night, and the coffee trees are heavy with red cherry.

Growing up on our family ranch in Kona, this was always the season we breathed out. The cattle settle, the light goes golden earlier, and the whole island slows down just a little.

This month I'm keeping it simple: what the rain gauges actually recorded, what forecasters expect this winter (it may surprise you), and why coffee season matters if you own or are dreaming about land here.

By the NumbersWhat the Rain Gauges Said

Kona mauka ended September a little dry, even as Hurricanes Lowell and Nolo soaked the rest of the island. But thanks to a record wet winter, most of our year-to-date totals are still well above normal.

Nolo stalled about 150 miles south of South Point and dumped 8 to 15 inches on the northern through southeastern Big Island, closing parts of Highway 11 in Kaʻū and Puna. Here on the leeward side, the mountain did what it always does and shielded us.

For comparison: Hilo Airport logged 16.19″ (186% of average) and Pāhala 13.23″ (289%). Source: NWS Honolulu September 2026 rainfall summary.

Winter OutlookCooler, and Likely Drier

Forecasters expect a dry winter. A strong El Niño has taken hold, and NOAA now favors below-normal rain for Hawaiʻi from November through March.

• El Niño is strong and building. NOAA gives a better than 83% chance of a strong-to-very-strong event through January–March 2027.
• Odds tilt dry. NOAA's October outlook gives a 75% chance of below-normal rain across the islands for December through March.
• Temperatures are a toss-up. Equal chances of a cooler, normal or warmer winter. Nights mauka will still feel crisp.
• Storms can still happen. A single Kona low or cold front can still drop a lot of rain on the leeward side in a day or two.

→ More on water and catchment: Buying Land on Hawaiʻi Island

Coffee SeasonRed Cherry in the Kona Belt

We're in the heart of harvest. Kona picking runs August through January, with the heaviest weeks from mid-September to mid-November.

The Kona Coffee Belt is a narrow strip roughly 30 miles long, between about 800 and 2,500 feet on the slopes of Hualālai and Mauna Loa. Every cherry is hand-picked, and pickers walk the same trees again and again as fruit ripens. If you've driven Māmalahoa Highway lately, you've seen the “Buying Cherry” signs and smelled the pulpers running.

The tough part of this year's story: the Kona Coffee Farmers Association reports cherry opened at just $1.90 to $2.25 per pound, while a conventionally managed farm needs about $3.11 per pound to break even. KCFA points to replanting for higher yields, better cherry prices, or roasting and selling direct as the ways forward.